Covid models not 100% correct’

SOUTH African Medical Association (Sama) chairperson Dr Angelique Coetzee says the Covid-19 third wave is not likely to come this month as projected earlier.

“Most probably next month or maybe in July … it depends on behaviour mostly. Even the latest modelling has hesitated to give a time frame – it all comes down to how well individuals and groups adhere to social distancing rules,” said Coetzee, adding that the latest modelling does not give a time frame due to inaccurate data available despite a notably steady increase in the number of new infections across the country.

The South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium had earlier warned of a potential third wave this month, adding that in the absence of a new variant, the peak would be lower than the first and second waves.

Coetzee said models do their best to approximate reality, however, modelling is always based on assumptions of what may happen in reality, based on data available to the modellers at the time, and the assumptions are usually based on variables which can change quite considerably.

“There is no 100% guarantee as it is a prediction. All over the world, modellers are struggling to get it 100% correct.”