Tensions between Maghreb heavyweights have wider implications

THE breakup of diplomatic relations between Algeria and Morocco last month is the product of a history of tension.

They belong to the same Maghreb region, share the same religion (Sunni Islam and Maleki rite) and identity, and speak a similar dialect. They also share a 1550km common border.

In fact, Algerian and Moroccan people are so close that it is difficult to distinguish them. But, historical, political and ideological dissimilarities since their respective independence weigh heavily in the relations between these countries.

Relations between the governments have seldom been cordial due to the different nature of their anticolonial struggle, their dissimilar political systems, and opposite ideological orientations.

Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia founded the Arab Maghreb Union in 1989. But since 1996, the union has become moribund due to repeated tensions in MoroccanAlgerian relations. The divergences of recent years are potentially far more consequential. They could threaten the stability of the North Africa region.

In March 1976, Algeria’s recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, proclaimed by the Sahrawi nationalist movement, the Polisario

Front, saw Morocco break diplomatic relations with Algeria. Many other African countries recognised the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

Relations were restored in May 1988. From Algeria’s perspective, Morocco has reneged on agreements.

In 1994, Moroccan authorities falsely accused Algerian intelligence of being behind the terrorist attacks at the Asni hotel in Marrakech.

Morocco imposed visas on Algerians, including those holding another citizenship. Algeria retaliated in imposing visas and closed its land borders with Morocco. In late 1995,

Morocco froze the institutions of the Arab Maghreb Union due to Algeria’s support for the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

A shift in relations seemed to have occurred when Abdelaziz Bouteflika became president of Algeria in April 1999. During his presidency, Bouteflika not only neglected the question of Western Sahara, but he also instructed officials not to respond to any Moroccan hostile actions. Following his forcible removal in April 2019, Algeria reiterated its support for the principle of self-determination.

For its part, Morocco had been lobbying the AU, Europe and the US for support for its claims of sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Two events in the past 10 months escalated tensions. The first was an attack on Sahrawi demonstrators in El-Guergarat, the buffer zone in the south of Western Sahara, by Moroccan troops. Then there was a tweet from then-President Donald Trump announcing US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in Western Sahara.

These constituted part of Algeria’s decision to break up diplomatic relations with Morocco. Trump had traded Moroccan occupied Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalising relations with Israel. Other Arab states did the same thing in the framework of the

Abraham Accords brokered by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Algeria perceived the decisions as a real threat to its national security.

Algiers’ threshold of tolerance against acts it considered hostile came in mid-July when Morocco’s ambassador to the UN distributed a note expressing support for a group fighting for the secession of the Kabyle coastal region of Algeria. The group is listed as a terrorist group by Algeria. This resulted in Algeria recalling its ambassador in Morocco for “consultations” and asking Morocco to clarify whether this was the ambassador’s sole decision or the government’s. It never received a response.

Another hostile act in the eyes of Algeria was a spying scandal revealed by international newspapers and human rights organisations. They found that Morocco had targeted more than 6 000 Algerians, including many senior political and military officials.

Algeria decided to break diplomatic relations with Morocco from August 24. The breakup may result in geopolitical realignments. But all will depend on whether Morocco will escalate tensions and use the Israeli card against Algeria or whether it will seek to reduce tensions.

Algeria has begun strengthening its control at the Algerian-Moroccan border. It could create serious problems for Morocco if it decided to expel the tens of thousands of Moroccans (many of whom are illegal migrants) from Algeria.

There are wider implications too. The breakup has marked the death knell of the Arab Maghreb Union, which was already dormant. The strained relations will either mean the regional grouping remains at a standstill, or a new grouping might emerge.

And the rivalries between Algeria and Morocco can be expected to intensify at the AU over Israel’s observer status there and over Western Sahara.

In the economic realm, the Algerian energy minister announced last month that the contract for the MaghrebEurope gas pipeline, which goes through Morocco, will not be renewed after it expires on October 31. The decision has now been confirmed. The pipeline goes from north-west Algeria and then crosses the Mediterranean. Instead, Algeria will distribute natural gas to Spain and Portugal via the pipeline, MEDGAZ.

The impact of this breakup is unpredictable. What’s certain, however, is that Algerian-Moroccan rivalry will intensify.